15 outs (flush draw with an open-ender), odds and equity
15 outs wins 54.1% of the time with two cards to come and 32.6% with one. That is enough to call a pot-sized bet on the flop. The 2-and-4 shortcut estimates 60.0%.
Which draws have 15 outs
- A flush draw plus an open-ended straight draw
Exact versus shortcut
| Street | Exact equity | 2-and-4 estimate | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flop (two cards to come) | 54.1% | 60.0% | +5.9 |
| Turn (one card to come) | 32.6% | 30.0% | -2.6 |
What 15 outs can call
Comparing your equity against the price each bet size offers. Green means the call breaks even on pot odds alone.
| Bet size | Equity needed | You have | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter pot | 16.7% | 54.1% | Call |
| Third pot | 20.0% | 54.1% | Call |
| Half pot | 25.0% | 54.1% | Call |
| Two-thirds pot | 28.6% | 54.1% | Call |
| Three-quarter pot | 30.0% | 54.1% | Call |
| Pot | 33.3% | 54.1% | Call |
Questions about 15 outs
What are the odds with 15 outs?
15 outs is 54.1% to hit by the river with two cards to come, and 32.6% with only the river left. Those are exact figures, not the 2-and-4 approximation.
What draw has 15 outs?
A flush draw plus an open-ended straight draw.
What is the biggest bet 15 outs can call?
On the flop, a pot-sized bet, anything up to 118% of the pot breaks even on pot odds alone. Implied odds can stretch that; being out of position shrinks it.
How far off is the 2-and-4 rule at 15 outs?
The shortcut says 60.0% from the flop against an exact 54.1%, so it is 5.9 points high. The drift grows with the number of outs.
Nearby out counts
- Next stepPut this against a real bet54.1% only means something next to the price you are being offered. The pot odds calculator takes the pot and the bet and gives you the answer in one line.
- 9 outs, flush draw35.0% from the flop
- 12 outs, flush draw with a gutshot45.0% from the flop
- All out counts1 to 21
Hear when the outs drills open
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