AA vs 22 odds
AA beats 22 82.2% of the time before the flop, winning outright 81.9% and splitting 0.5%. 22 holds the remaining 17.8%. These figures are exact: all 5,136,912 possible boards were evaluated across 36 card combinations.
Equity by street
The same matchup on three flops that ask different questions: one that connects with nothing, one that offers a flush draw and a straight draw, and one that puts a pair on the board.
| Street | Board | AA | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preflop | - | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| Dry flop | Kd 7h 2c | 9.2% | 90.8% |
| Wet flop | 9h 8h 6d | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| Paired flop | Qs Qd 4c | 92.0% | 8.0% |
| Hand | Win | Tie | Lose | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 81.9% | 0.5% | 17.5% | 82.2% |
| 22 | 17.5% | 0.5% | 81.9% | 17.8% |
Why this matchup matters
Pair against pair is the most lopsided common confrontation in hold'em. AA holds 82.2% because the smaller pair is drawing almost entirely to one of the two remaining cards of its own rank, roughly a one-in-five shot across five board cards. Straights and flushes account for most of the rest. This is why stacks go in so readily with a big pair and why the loser rarely feels they did anything wrong: there was very little to do.
Questions about this matchup
What are the odds of AA against 22?
AA has 82.2% equity against 22 before the flop. It wins outright 81.9% of the time, loses 17.5% and splits the pot 0.5%.
Are these numbers exact or estimated?
Exact. Every one of the 5,136,912 board runouts was evaluated across all 36 ways the two hands can be dealt. No sampling was used, so there is no margin of error.
How does the flop change AA versus 22?
On a dry Kd 7h 2c flop, AA holds 9.2%. On a wet 9h 8h 6d board with a flush draw and a straight draw available, it holds 89.2%. Coordinated boards move equity towards the hand that can draw.
Should 22 get all-in against AA before the flop?
Not for a full stack by choice. At 17.8% the pot needs to be offering considerably better than even money before calling off is profitable.
Both hands
Hear the day the trainer opens
AA versus 22 is settled arithmetic; recognising the spot in real time is not, and that is what the trainer drills. Everything opens without a card while Learn GTO is in early access.
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