AA vs JTs odds
AA beats JTs 78.8% of the time before the flop, winning outright 78.7% and splitting 0.4%. JTs holds the remaining 21.2%. These figures are exact: all 3,424,608 possible boards were evaluated across 24 card combinations.
Equity by street
The same matchup on three flops that ask different questions: one that connects with nothing, one that offers a flush draw and a straight draw, and one that puts a pair on the board.
| Street | Board | AA | JTs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preflop | - | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| Dry flop | Kd 7h 2c | 91.6% | 8.4% |
| Wet flop | 9h 8h 6d | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| Paired flop | Qs Qd 4c | 93.8% | 6.2% |
| Hand | Win | Tie | Lose | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 78.7% | 0.4% | 21.0% | 78.8% |
| JTs | 21.0% | 0.4% | 78.7% | 21.2% |
Why this matchup matters
An overpair against a suited connector looks hopeless for the connector and is not quite. JTs still holds 21.2%, and almost none of that comes from making a bigger pair, it comes from straights and flushes, the two ways a connected suited hand can beat a hand it can never out-pair. That is also why the equity collapses when the connector is offsuit: half its outs disappear.
Questions about this matchup
What are the odds of AA against JTs?
AA has 78.8% equity against JTs before the flop. It wins outright 78.7% of the time, loses 21.0% and splits the pot 0.4%.
Are these numbers exact or estimated?
Exact. Every one of the 3,424,608 board runouts was evaluated across all 24 ways the two hands can be dealt. No sampling was used, so there is no margin of error.
How does the flop change AA versus JTs?
On a dry Kd 7h 2c flop, AA holds 91.6%. On a wet 9h 8h 6d board with a flush draw and a straight draw available, it holds 60.8%. Coordinated boards move equity towards the hand that can draw.
Should JTs get all-in against AA before the flop?
Not for a full stack by choice. At 21.2% the pot needs to be offering considerably better than even money before calling off is profitable.
Both hands
Hear the day the trainer opens
AA versus JTs is settled arithmetic; recognising the spot in real time is not, and that is what the trainer drills. Everything opens without a card while Learn GTO is in early access.
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