4 outs (gutshot straight draw), odds and equity
4 outs wins 16.5% of the time with two cards to come and 8.7% with one. That is enough to call only a small bet on the flop. The 2-and-4 shortcut estimates 16.0%.
Which draws have 4 outs
- A gutshot straight draw
- Two pair improving to a full house
Exact versus shortcut
| Street | Exact equity | 2-and-4 estimate | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flop (two cards to come) | 16.5% | 16.0% | -0.5 |
| Turn (one card to come) | 8.7% | 8.0% | -0.7 |
What 4 outs can call
Comparing your equity against the price each bet size offers. Green means the call breaks even on pot odds alone.
| Bet size | Equity needed | You have | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter pot | 16.7% | 16.5% | Needs implied odds |
| Third pot | 20.0% | 16.5% | Needs implied odds |
| Half pot | 25.0% | 16.5% | Needs implied odds |
| Two-thirds pot | 28.6% | 16.5% | Needs implied odds |
| Three-quarter pot | 30.0% | 16.5% | Needs implied odds |
| Pot | 33.3% | 16.5% | Needs implied odds |
Questions about 4 outs
What are the odds with 4 outs?
4 outs is 16.5% to hit by the river with two cards to come, and 8.7% with only the river left. Those are exact figures, not the 2-and-4 approximation.
What draw has 4 outs?
A gutshot straight draw. Two pair improving to a full house.
What is the biggest bet 4 outs can call?
On the flop, only a small bet, anything up to 20% of the pot breaks even on pot odds alone. Implied odds can stretch that; being out of position shrinks it.
How far off is the 2-and-4 rule at 4 outs?
The shortcut says 16.0% from the flop against an exact 16.5%, so it is -0.5 points low. The drift grows with the number of outs.
Nearby out counts
- Next stepPut this against a real bet16.5% only means something next to the price you are being offered. The pot odds calculator takes the pot and the bet and gives you the answer in one line.
- 6 outs, two overcards24.1% from the flop
- 8 outs, open-ended straight draw31.5% from the flop
- 9 outs, flush draw35.0% from the flop
- All out counts1 to 21
Hear when the outs drills open
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